Recent statements by military intelligence representatives and experts indicate that Russia is preparing for a new wave of mobilization. According to Skibitsky, the Russian plan to recruit 403,000 contract soldiers was fulfilled by 80%, mainly due to high payments and foreign mercenaries. However, no direct mobilization has taken place in 2024 so far, although preparatory processes are underway and reservists are now permitted to participate in foreign operations.
Experts note that the Kremlin is preparing society for a possible new mobilization should a shortage of contract soldiers emerge due to reduced defense funding in the coming year. Russia’s mobilization resource is estimated at several million people, but the actual effectiveness of mobilization is in question due to youth discontent and some social resistance. At the same time, the infrastructure for mobilization measures is now fully ready, including an electronic summons system and exit restrictions for conscripts.
Ahead of the anticipated Putin-Trump summit in Budapest, the Russian authorities are demonstrating increased military capabilities, notably through nuclear force drills. This has both domestic and external effects, aiming to strengthen the Kremlin’s negotiating position. However, experts believe that reliance on mobilization and nuclear blackmail will not provide Moscow decisive advantages; the war is unlikely to end in the coming years, even with additional manpower.
In particular, Russia’s 2026 budget does not point to any reduction in military spending, with policy shifts indicating a move toward more coercive mobilization. Furthermore, announcing a new mobilization wave could spark internal political strife in Russia and will remain a costly and resource-intensive process. Experts stress the crucial importance for Ukraine to maintain resilience at the front and informational stability, as the Kremlin’s strategy of exhausting its opponent and demonstrating strength currently defines Russia’s approach and its attempts to influence future international negotiations.
