Analysts discuss how long Donald Trump can maintain a tough sanctions policy against Russia, what further actions he might take, and how this could impact the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Experts note that the new sanctions on the Russian economy will have a delayed effect, and immediate change should not be expected. Economic pressure is expected to gradually intensify, affecting the power balance, but the Kremlin does not seem ready for concessions yet.
Participants emphasize that the sanctions are intended to force Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table, though this remains unlikely for now. Putin might respond with provocations against Western countries to demonstrate his resilience. The resolution of the conflict, however, is seen as depending not only on Moscow but on high-level talks involving the US, China, and other major international players.
Particular attention is paid to China’s role. It is highlighted that China’s trade exchange with the US and EU far exceeds that with Russia, and the imposition of additional tariffs by the West could influence Beijing’s stance. However, there is skepticism about how quickly the US and Europe could persuade China to shift its position.
Given the upcoming US elections, Trump is compelled to act more decisively due to internal party pressures. The consolidated imposition of sanctions with Europe points to a change in Trump’s approach and narrows Putin’s room for maneuver. Trump is also expected to discuss nuclear arms limitations and China's potential to help resolve the war in Ukraine during upcoming talks with China’s leadership.
