On October 25, political scientist and head of the “Dylova Stolytsia” think tank Vadym Denysenko commented on the recent visit of Putin's special envoy on negotiations with Washington, Kirill Dmitriev, to the United States.
Dmitriev, now in Washington for the second time, announced that Russia is ready to provide security guarantees to Ukraine and seeks a diplomatic settlement. However, Denysenko notes that Dmitriev failed to meet with members of Donald Trump's inner circle, only contacting Witkoff, who is partly sidelined from US-Russia negotiation organization. This highlights Dmitriev’s limited influence in Washington.
The Kremlin’s move is driven by fears of new Trump-led sanctions, particularly in the financial sector, and is an attempt to impact the pace of escalating sanctions. Kremlin’s stance on ending the war hasn't changed—officials insist on previously set positions, and a ceasefire along the front line isn’t being seriously considered.
Denysenko suggests the war may only end under three scenarios: an internal Russian coup, pressure from China, or combined US-Chinese pressure. Any substantive talks between the US, Russia, and China are likely to happen only after addressing broader global security and economic issues, such as ongoing changes in world trade.
Regarding new sanctions on Russian oil companies, Denysenko notes Russia could lose up to 40-50% of its oil exports in an optimistic scenario, although it would take a few months to adjust supply chains. Losses of 10-15% are more likely in a negative scenario for Moscow.
Other topics discussed included Trump’s potential Asian tour, a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, and Pyongyang’s role in global stability. Denysenko said US leverage over North Korea is limited while Kim aims to keep balanced relations among major powers.
In summary, Denysenko argues there have been no significant changes in the Kremlin’s position so far, peace talks remain stalled, and future sanctions against Russia depend on the outcomes of upcoming international negotiations.
