In an interview, Ukrainian journalist and publicist Vitaliy Portnikov discusses the current state of the war between Ukraine and Russia, stressing that there are no preconditions for its quick resolution. Portnikov asserts that he does not make forecasts but calculates political formulas based on reality rather than emotions or wishes. He compares the situation to the Greek myth of Cassandra and the biblical prophets, noting society’s tendency to ignore uncomfortable analytical predictions.
He analyzes the attitudes of key actors—Biden, Trump, Putin—emphasizing their differing logic: Trump thinks like a businessman, Zelensky as an ordinary person in politics, and Putin as a security operative. According to Portnikov, sanctions may not stop the war but make it costlier and less manageable for the Kremlin, especially if Russia loses access to currency reserves.
Portnikov highlights that the war is now an existential struggle for both Ukraine and Russia itself, which may lose its imperial status if it is defeated. He reflects on the evolving identity of Ukrainians during the war, emphasizing that the true transformation of society will only be visible once peace returns.
He pays special attention to issues of language, social consolidation, and the challenges Ukraine will face postwar in both political and socio-cultural spheres. Portnikov also discusses the prospects for Russia as a nation after a possible defeat and the likelihood of challenging its authoritarian and imperialist practices. According to him, the future of the region will be determined not only on the battlefield but also through self-identification and societal changes in both countries.
