On October 28, the Center for Public Analytics 'Vezha' featured a discussion with political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko regarding current relations among the US, Russia, and China in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war.
The analysis centered on the Kremlin's attempts to influence the Trump administration through various channels, notably Kirill Dmitriev's visit to the US preceding a phone call between Trump and Putin. Fesenko noted that Russia initially saw the neutralization of a possible Tomahawk strike as a significant success, but ultimately, the US's firm stance led to the failure of diplomatic initiatives, the imposition of new sanctions on Russia, and the postponement of the Budapest summit.
The discussion also covered differing approaches within the Kremlin: some aim for agreements by pressuring Trump, while others regard the US as a strategic adversary. Russia deploys multiple tactics, presenting Dmitriev as a constructive negotiator and Lavrov as a hardliner, which enables maneuvering between compromise and confrontation.
Fesenko highlighted the risk of Russian "counterplay" in peace initiatives, particularly through formal concessions that Trump could interpret as genuine compromise. The Kremlin's main strategy remains trying to force Ukraine toward peace on Russian terms by influencing Western partners.
China's role was deemed important: a potential Trump-Xi meeting could pressure both Russia and the global economy, though Fesenko remains skeptical about the likelihood of a breakthrough on the Ukrainian front.
In summary, Fesenko stated that despite tactical shifts by major world leaders and their interactions, a breakthrough in ending the war is unlikely in the near future — with China preferring to maintain the status quo and the US and Russia remaining competitors even as talks continue.
