The meeting between Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, scheduled for October 30, has drawn global media attention. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hopes this event will lead to China reducing its purchases of Russian oil as part of US-China trade agreements. However, the reality of the meeting remains uncertain—no official confirmation has been given by Beijing.
Analysts note that if the meeting takes place, the likely focus will be the sale of a stake in TikTok to the American side. The oil issue may be raised by Trump, but real agreements to significantly reduce purchases of Russian oil are not expected at this stage. One key reason is that even with sanctions, demand for Russian oil remains high, especially from China and India.
US sanctions targeting Rosneft, Lukoil, and other major Russian oil companies have impacted the Russian market, but the full effect will be visible only after the official enforcement of restrictions in November. Sanctions have already pushed Russia’s partners to look for alternative suppliers and demand substantial discounts on Russian oil.
One of the key dilemmas remains the ability to settle oil trade payments. India failed to switch to rupees in transactions with Russia and remains dependent on the US dollar. A similar situation exists with China, though yuan-based settlements allow China to continue as the main market for Russian oil.
Experts suggest that even if India cuts imports, it will be difficult for China to absorb additional volumes, so Russia’s overall oil revenue may decrease due both to lower barrel prices and export volumes.
Experts conclude that while US-China talks are unlikely to produce immediate or substantial changes on Russian oil exports, the topics of pressure and sanctions will remain a key part of the global political agenda.
