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Risks of Pseudo-Compromise: How Russia Seeks to Influence Trump on the War in Ukraine


Experts discuss Russia's strategy, the roles of Orban and Trump in Ukrainian peace initiatives, and the impact of sanctions.

Participants in the discussion voiced concerns about a potential Russian counter-strategy, in which the Kremlin promotes its own "peace initiatives" by influencing US and European leaders. They note that Russia may offer seemingly compromise conditions for a settlement, such as proposing the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donetsk without any real concessions from Moscow.

Attention is drawn to Hungarian Prime Minister Orban's role as he plans talks with Donald Trump about a possible summit in Budapest and advocates forming an alliance with the Czech Republic and Slovakia to coordinate positions on Ukraine. Such an alliance could weaken support for Ukraine in the EU.

The discussion highlighted Trump's skepticism about sanctions, even though his administration introduced restrictions on Russian companies. These measures affected Russia, but experts are uncertain whether such sanctions will remain in force under Trump, as he himself indicated their possible removal.

Sanctions are emphasized as a vital tool of pressure on Russia alongside military support. Nonetheless, European countries, despite the large-scale war, continue to buy Russian gas, maintaining Moscow's economic leverage in the market.

The participants urge close monitoring of European and US leaders’ policies, as Russia’s strategy aims to impose peace on its own terms using diplomatic, economic, and informational levers.