In his analytical program, Vitalii Portnikov reviews the current developments on the Russia-Ukraine front and to what extent Russian President Vladimir Putin is willing to compromise to end the war. Portnikov analyzes the positions of Russian and American leaders, forecasts future scenarios, and discusses the role of sanctions and international policy on events.
Citing US Congressional sources, the journalist emphasizes: Putin is now more determined than ever to continue the war and seek victory on the battlefield. US intelligence services are skeptical about Donald Trump's efforts to halt hostilities. The White House does not comment on these conclusions, only underlining Trump's ongoing peace efforts, but their effectiveness is questioned.
Portnikov maintains a critical stance regarding intelligence analysis, noting that military discipline often conflicts with analytical thinking. However, intelligence agencies have access to non-public information—such as intercepted conversations between state leaders—which may reshape their assessments.
According to Portnikov, a real end to the war is possible only through significant economic and military pressure from the US toward Russia. But this may also entail the risk of a third world war, including the possible use of nuclear weapons. The choice lies between trying to end the war and risking a major global escalation.
The observer draws parallels with the war in Syria, noting the encapsulated nature of the fighting. Russia attempts to demoralize Ukrainian society with rear-area attacks, but historical analogies show such tactics rarely succeed in forcing capitulation and instead often consolidate the population.
Portnikov separately highlights recent Russian legislative changes and mobilization resources. However, economic decline and the social atomization of Russian society could eventually weaken Putin's regime. The author stresses the significance of energy supply issues and potential losses to Moscow from sanctions.
He predicts further confrontation between Russia and the US, the likelihood of increasing tension, and rising risks of proxy wars and new technologies, such as drone warfare. He warns that another escalation could potentially open the door to a major global conflict.
The second part reviews questions about protests in the US, Ukraine’s geopolitical role for Russia, the constancy of Putin’s position, and the future impact of oil and China for the Kremlin.
This is a comprehensive perspective on the prospects for war and international relations among Russia, the US, Ukraine, and other major players by the renowned Ukrainian journalist and analyst.
