Last week, journalists from the European service of Radio Liberty introduced a potential ceasefire plan consisting of two phases. This plan, often called a "ceasefire," was discussed in detail, including on the "Vezha" program. Yesterday, President Volodymyr Zelensky was asked about the authenticity of the plan, to which he responded that he had not seen any such plan approved by Ukraine and that no positions had been coordinated with the United States or other international partners.
Experts, when discussing the possibility of such a plan existing, stated they were only familiar with publications, particularly from Bloomberg, outlining a 12-point proposal similar to previous plans for resolving the Israel-Gaza conflict. It was stressed that even the first stage has not been fully implemented and that the ceasefire is only partial.
In the conversation, it was noted that after the intense phase of war in Israel, there is now a conditional ceasefire, although armed incidents and the activation of groups like Hezbollah persist. The experts draw analogies with the Middle East situation to highlight the difficulties in implementing such peace plans, especially due to the lack of a unified mechanism for the disarmament of parties.
Regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, the participants are skeptical about the possibility of producing an effective plan without involving China. They emphasize that the current format of negotiations exceeds the Russia-Ukraine scope and that global agreements, unity among the US, Europe, and China are necessary, which is currently lacking.
There is also mention of regular working meetings of Ukraine’s coalition of international partners, discussing support, weapons supplies, pressure on Russia, and the status of frozen Russian assets. The general conclusion is that without significant progress in relations with China, a major breakthrough in peace negotiations is unlikely.
In summary, the experts highlight high global tension, drawing parallels to the period before the Cuban missile crisis, and encourage continued monitoring of developments in international politics.
