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Lavrov Falls Out of Favor With Putin: What Stands Behind Personnel Changes in Russian Politics


Rumors about Lavrov’s possible dismissal and changes in the Russian leadership: an expert analysis of the causes and consequences.

Media reports indicate that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has fallen out of favor with President Putin after failing to arrange a meeting with the US president during discussions with the Secretary of State. Lavrov was notably absent from the Russian Security Council session, where the response to Donald Trump’s nuclear testing statements was discussed—a first for a permanent member.

Additionally, Lavrov will not lead Russia’s delegation to the G20 summit. This role will be given to a deputy from the presidential administration. Experts speculate that the main reason is Lavrov's inability to advance foreign policy goals favored by Putin. However, the real reason may include Lavrov’s health issues or the Kremlin's lack of interest in public engagement at the event.

Analysts note that Lavrov typically conveys the leadership’s stance and demonstrates no personal initiative, aligning with Putin’s expectations. Lavrov has previously requested retirement, but Putin repeatedly refused. Staff changes are unlikely to alter policy—any new minister will follow Kremlin-set directions.

The G20 replacement is seen as a sign of Russia’s decreased interest in the summit’s publicity, limiting exposure to journalists’ questions about the war in Ukraine. The author emphasizes that Putin alone defines the country's policy, showing no willingness for compromise or peace talks with the West regarding the war. Thus, personnel moves represent a rotation of executors rather than a political shift.