Following the recent escalation in relations between the West and Russia, experts note a fundamental shift in approach: more politicians are engaging Russia from a position of strength and abandoning any illusions about reaching agreements with the Kremlin. The analyst suggests that after the meeting between the US and Russian presidents, Vladimir Putin chose the path of escalation, utilizing drones in Europe and relying on the West's lack of a forceful response.
Nuclear weapons have come to the forefront. In the past four years, their role has transformed from purely a deterrent to an instrument of blackmail. According to the expert, the likelihood of nuclear rhetoric being used as a key political leverage in conflicts is increasing.
The article explores possible US responses to Russia’s escalation, including sanctions against Russian companies and further arms supplies to Ukraine. It is predicted that US policy will depend on both election outcomes and future Russian actions. The discussion also covers the historical context of nuclear threats, deterrence policy, and evolving state strategies.
The analyst notes that the Russian army has lost its reputation as an irresistible force. In military, political, and information spheres, the "nuclear card" is now primarily a tool of psychological pressure rather than a practical threat. The article also examines potential scenarios for Ukraine, the influence of US elections, internal Russian developments, and increasing polarization in European countries.
The conclusion is that the war in Ukraine will end only after Russia’s international position weakens and the West implements a focused stability-oriented policy in Europe.
