During the Cold War, the main issue was nuclear parity between the US and the USSR; the arsenals of China, the UK, and France received little attention. After the Cold War, such topics seemed less relevant, but rising Chinese nuclear capabilities are now prompting a reevaluation that could shift the focus of international arms negotiations.
In this context, the Russia-Ukraine war is receding into the background of US-Russia public dialogue. The Kremlin is rebuilding its diplomatic pressure, shifting the discussion to nuclear arms control. There is speculation that a new strategic weapons agreement could become a central topic at a possible Trump-Putin summit, possibly overtaking the Ukraine war as the focus of talks.
The Russian strategy aims to provoke or prompt the US into restructuring the negotiation agenda — prioritizing global arms talks over Ukraine. China plays an important role in this shift, especially following recent military displays. The Kremlin may try to use this context to redirect future summits and strategic dialogues.
Nevertheless, resolving the Ukraine war remains a key US concern and outstanding issue. Future Russia-US negotiations will likely hinge on developments on the ground, notably in places like Pokrovsk and Kupyansk. Currently, the Kremlin is not interested in ceasefire discussions, instead leveraging battlefield events to strengthen its negotiating position with the US.
Looking ahead, strategic arms talks are set to dominate international negotiations in 2025, potentially involving China. At the same time, ending the war in Ukraine will remain an essential issue on the global agenda.
