Following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has regularly threatened Western countries, especially the United States, with the use of nuclear weapons. The main goal of these threats is to force the West to reduce its support for Ukraine.
One of the most prominent examples of nuclear bluffing occurred during the battles for Kherson, when Kremlin threats caused a cautious US response. Recently, Moscow has stepped up its nuclear rhetoric, particularly focusing on US domestic politics and Donald Trump. Trump said on his social platform that the US would hold nuclear drills in response to alleged Russian and Chinese maneuvers, though US officials clarified that only non-explosive component testing is taking place.
In reaction, the Kremlin convened its Security Council and threatened proportional action. The Russian defense minister advised immediate preparation for possible full-scale tests on the Novaya Zemlya test site in the Arctic.
Moscow has demonstrated its nuclear capability with strategic drills, launches of intercontinental and submarine-launched missiles, and testing of new systems. Indoctrination has extended to Belarus, which has received modern Russian tactical nuclear weapons instead of outdated models.
The escalation of rhetoric is seen on both sides: while the West becomes less responsive to nuclear threats, the Kremlin must intensify them to be taken seriously.
Arms control is weakening: the New START treaty expires in 2026, and regular verification has all but ended. In response, Europe is seriously considering expanding its own nuclear deterrence capabilities.
Nuclear weapons are returning to the center of global politics as a key element of deterrence. The US must assert its policy and counter Kremlin provocations, with both sides raising stakes in a dangerous new arms race.
