Yesterday's massive missile and drone attack resulted in one of the largest blackouts in Ukraine since 2022. This energy crisis is a prelude to a tough winter that, according to the Kremlin's plans, Ukraine is expected to endure.
However, according to Vitaliy Portnikov, all these attempts by the Kremlin to freeze Ukraine do not demonstrate Russia's strength, but rather its weakness. In four years of war, Russia has failed to achieve its main military objectives: occupying Kyiv region, changing Ukraine's government, or fully capturing Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Unable to reach their goals on the battlefield, Russia has shifted focus to making life unbearable for Ukrainian civilians: destroying the energy infrastructure to force people to live in darkness and cold, prompting migration or capitulation.
Portnikov highlights that Russia's demographic war against Ukraine has deep historical roots, including the suppression of uprisings and the Holodomor. Now, these brutal methods are combined with technological strikes on infrastructure.
Civilians in eastern and southern regions are being pushed to move closer to central or western Ukraine or to leave the country, with Moscow aiming to clear these territories for Russians in case of future occupation. Similar policies were once used in Siberia and Crimea.
If Ukraine succeeds in overcoming these challenges, it will be thanks to the professionalism of its government and the unity of society. Failure, on the other hand, could see Ukraine disappear from the political map.
Despite Ukrainians' desire to retaliate—such as leaving Russian cities without power—the commentator notes that such actions would only unite Russians around their government and not affect their resolve to continue the war.
The key remains: the war will only end when Russia lacks the financial, social, and demographic means to fight. The stability of the Ukrainian state is vital for preserving the nation.
