On November 12, the Veza Center for Public Analytics held a discussion with military expert Ivan Stupak. The conversation covered developments at the front, recent military command updates, and Russian advances in the Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv regions. Russians are pushing towards Huliaipole, attempting to encircle Ukrainian positions, and have breached the Kharkiv region border. A major concern is Ukraine’s limited manpower and equipment, making simultaneous defense on multiple axes challenging.
The discussion also addressed Ukraine's internal political crisis, highlighting the corruption scandal involving Energoatom and the complexities of gathering evidence. The influence of international partners on anti-corruption agencies and indications of external pressure affecting political processes were particularly noted.
The topic of Russia’s mobilization potential was examined: a new reservist law was passed, with partial hidden mobilization ongoing. However, Russia faces a labor shortage, and total mobilization could risk economic collapse. The use of small assault groups by Russian forces was described, which complicates Ukraine’s defense, though losing Pokrovsk could allow the Ukrainian army to reallocate resources.
Overall, the situation remains complex both at the front and inside the country, with corruption and mobilization developments directly impacting Ukraine's strategic position.
