US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that his country has nearly exhausted its ability to impose new sanctions to force Russia to end its war against Ukraine. After a meeting of G7 foreign ministers, Rubio said partners urged Washington to sanction Russia's largest oil companies, which has now been done. He emphasized the need for strict enforcement of all existing sanctions implemented by the US and its allies.
Russia has so far managed to bypass significant portions of these restrictions through the use of so-called shadow fleets and oil sales via indirect companies. Recent US actions, including blocking a company linked to Kremlin-affiliated oligarch Timchenko from acquiring shares in Lukoil, reflect a move to close these loopholes.
Rubio's statement serves as a signal to the Kremlin, effectively inviting Moscow to negotiations by highlighting that with a potential Trump presidency, further sanctions are unlikely. It is also addressed to European partners, reminding them about strict sanctions control and the possible confiscation of Russian assets in the EU, particularly those held in Belgium.
Currently, the EU lacks effective financial instruments to support Ukraine, and attempts to mobilize funds from sovereign wealth funds, such as Norway's, have so far failed.
There remains the question of whether sanctions pressure can actually force President Putin to end the war. According to the US, Russia's conditions for ending the conflict are not acceptable for Ukraine—chiefly, the transfer of control over parts of Donetsk region. Even such concessions would only "freeze" rather than fully end the war, as Russia insists on further territorial claims.
Going forward, the US may prioritize a ceasefire, allowing the administration to claim diplomatic achievements. This helps explain mixed signals from Washington, with some officials considering new sanctions and others ruling them out. Ultimately, policy is shifting from sanctions pressure toward a compromise, reflecting the political priorities ahead of the US election.
