The "Venezuelan oil bomb" could have significant global political consequences and seriously impact the Kremlin. The Caribbean Sea has become a zone of active confrontation: the US aircraft carrier USS Gerald Ford is heading toward Venezuelan shores, escorted by destroyers and submarines. Over 10,000 American soldiers are already in the region, while B-52 strategic bombers patrol the airspace near the coast.
The US officially claims the operation is against drug cartels, but the scale suggests much broader ambitions. Since September, American forces have carried out 17 strikes on vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific, allegedly transporting narcotics, with at least 69 suspected traffickers killed.
The main goal, as announced by the Trump administration, is to remove Nicolás Maduro's regime. Should there be a regime change, Venezuela—with the world's largest proven oil reserves (about 303 billion barrels)—could increase output to 3 million barrels a day in a few years.
Currently, production has dropped to 900,000 barrels a day due to decades of corruption, mismanagement, and international sanctions. China remains the primary buyer of Venezuelan oil, receiving it at a discount.
With a new regime and investment, Venezuela could substantially expand oil exports, putting downward pressure on global prices—potentially below $50, or even $30 a barrel. This would negatively affect the budgets of Russia and Saudi Arabia, whose economies are heavily dependent on oil prices. For Moscow, it could become a real disaster: Russia's budget is already in deficit, and further declines could worsen the situation.
The US operation off Venezuela's coast is risky and unpredictable, but its outcome could reshape the global oil market and influence the economic interests of Russia and OPEC nations.
