On November 14, political scientist Ihor Chalenko analyzed the launch of the large-scale US military operation "Southern Spear" against Venezuela. Officially, Washington declares this campaign as a fight against drug trafficking in the Western Hemisphere, but unofficially it targets the Nicolás Maduro regime and demonstrates strength to China.
The operation is led by the US Southern Command, utilizing robotic systems and airstrikes on vessels in the Caribbean suspected of drug trafficking. The aircraft carrier "Gerald Ford" is active off the coast of Venezuela. While US officials deny plans for a ground operation, they allow for the possibility of strikes on land targets if necessary.
Tensions escalated after Venezuela's 2024 elections, amid allegations of electoral fraud. The US considers Maduro's regime to be linked to the "Sun Cartel" and the distribution of narcotics. In response, Caracas is mobilizing troops, preparing for guerrilla scenarios, and Maduro is signing new defense laws and accusing Washington of attempts to destabilize the country.
Diplomatic sources indicate Maduro may be considering stepping down in exchange for security guarantees. Meanwhile, Venezuela seeks support from Russia and China, but receives only political backing and no military intervention.
The official US position is to protect its territory from drugs, yet harsher measures are not ruled out. Most Americans, according to polls, oppose a war in Venezuela. Experts say Washington's pressure aims to force Maduro out or provoke a split within Venezuela's military. Sanctions continue to weaken the Venezuelan economy.
For Ukraine, the events around Venezuela demonstrate that the US is ready to launch large-scale operations even during global tension, maintaining its role in world affairs. The outcome will shape the future of Maduro and broader geopolitical dynamics in the region.
