Ukrainian defense forces successfully struck the Ryazan oil refinery, one of the largest enterprises in the European part of the Russian Federation. The attack resulted in explosions and fires that may temporarily reduce the plant’s capacity, which is crucial both for the Russian state budget and for supplying Russian troops at the front.
This strike adds to the recent US energy sanctions against Russia. Former US President Donald Trump emphasized that such sanctions are aimed at pushing Moscow to stop the war against Ukraine. However, without the actual depletion of Russian resources, President Putin is unlikely to agree to negotiations on a ceasefire soon.
Ukrainian strikes have already led to gasoline shortages in many Russian regions, though Moscow itself is still well supplied. This points to deepening problems in Russia's oil refining industry.
The reduced capacity of Russian refineries forces Russia to buy oil products abroad, spending valuable foreign currency reserves, which remain limited. Simultaneously, there is a large surplus of crude oil, and following new US sanctions, refineries in India, Turkey, and even China are reducing purchases, making exports increasingly difficult for Russia.
Major Russian oil companies may ultimately have to cut production due to the lack of buyers and constraints in refining within Russia. This creates an energy trap for Russia, strengthened by both US efforts and Ukrainian strikes, posing long-term challenges for the Kremlin.
The author notes the importance of long-range missiles for Ukraine: they could further shorten the time needed to weaken Russia's oil industry and, consequently, its war-waging capacity. The necessity for strict enforcement of sanctions by the US and EU is also emphasized to prevent "shadow" oil exports from sustaining Russia’s economy.
Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries highlight the effectiveness of combined Western and Ukrainian strategies to accelerate an end to the war.
