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Ukraine's Front Under Threat: Strategic Crisis and Ways Forward


The author analyzes the critical situation at the front, issues of army exhaustion, mobilization, and stresses the need for military reform.

In a livestream, Serhiy Sternenko discussed one of the most pressing and resonant topics: the situation at the front and the threat of Ukraine's strategic defeat. He emphasizes that remaining silent about problems in the army is unacceptable, as Ukraine’s very statehood depends on addressing these issues.

The main threats include the degradation and exhaustion of infantry units, inadequate replacements, insufficient fortifications, logistical challenges, and low brigade manning. In many frontline areas—Kupiansk, Pokrovsk, Hulyaipole, and Novopavlivka—Russian troops advance in small groups, exploiting the sparsity of Ukrainian defensive lines and difficult weather conditions.

Current problems stem not only from the numerical and equipment advantage of the Russian army, but also from organizational and staffing issues within the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The lack of lessons learned from losses and delays in military reform further worsen the situation. Sternenko insists on recognizing these issues at the highest political-military level in order to enact effective changes in the army.

He warns that freezing the war or hoping for negotiations with Russia plays into the enemy’s hands, letting Russia accumulate resources and prepare for future attacks. Only proactive solutions—addressing staffing, organization, and supply problems—can provide Ukraine a chance to withstand. The author calls on everyone to raise awareness about this crisis and to support the army in any way possible.

Sternenko reiterates that while the situation is dire, it is not hopeless yet. He urges for action, support for the military, and a commitment to truth and reform for the sake of Ukraine’s survival.