The latest negotiations between the US, Europe, and Russia on resolving the war in Ukraine are happening amid notable restraint and silence from China. Experts note that Beijing is currently observing without direct involvement, understanding its unique leverage over Russia—a position unmatched globally. China likely expects Europe will eventually require its support.
The geopolitical struggle largely centers on who will dominate the lucrative European market: China or the United States. European states are keen on maintaining trade and security, but security is unattainable without Beijing's engagement due to its sway over Belarus and capacity for economic pressure on Russia.
China's formal participation in European security guarantees may involve signing agreements, while informally it could swiftly impose restrictions on technology and oil supplies to Russia, significantly weakening Moscow’s economy—especially its defense sector.
Currently, Beijing is waiting for the US to formally request its involvement, anticipating Washington may recognize limited leverage over the Kremlin. Only then might China move to secure concessions for itself through active diplomacy.
Given international political dynamics and the US electoral calendar, a realistic window for these talks with Chinese involvement could be spring or summer 2026 before the American elections.
Russian media and official reactions to Trump’s revised peace proposals and the Geneva talks have been cautious, although the initial plan was seen as favorable to the Kremlin. Meanwhile, propaganda and emotional appeals for maintaining the status quo are growing, with expectations focused on continuation rather than breakthrough.
In China, anti-Japanese propaganda has intensified, with some statements suggestive of a potential conflict over Taiwan by 2027—an issue that could affect the broader Russia-Ukraine war. Experts increasingly see Ukraine’s conflict within a wider global context, and expect Beijing’s role to become even more prominent.
