On November 25, the Center for Public Analytics “Vezha” hosted a conversation with Volodymyr Ohryzko, former Foreign Minister of Ukraine and Head of the Center for Russia Studies. The discussion focused on prospects for peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, the role of the USA and Donald Trump, the influence of European countries and possible developments involving the Russian Federation.
Ohryzko emphasized that the West has long tried to prevent the breakup of Russia, seeing the country’s integrity as a pillar of strategic stability. Arguments about nuclear proliferation or civil war, he asserted, do not stand up to analytical scrutiny and are manageable with proper mechanisms. According to him, gradual and controlled disintegration of Russia might provide more security for the West.
The impact of the US on the peace process and the potential role of Donald Trump were given particular attention. Ohryzko pointed out that Americans, regardless of administration, consistently seek stability, but US domestic politics and Trump’s dominance in talks can have mixed effects on outcomes. The discussion also raised recent US-led peace initiatives for Ukraine and the complexities of Europe’s position, often shaped by US policy.
Regarding current Ukraine-Russia negotiations, Ohryzko does not predict a rapid or lasting agreement due to Russia’s tough stance. He sees a likely scenario of a ceasefire being formalized with international mediators, rather than political leaders, signing off. He recommends increasing joint actions among Ukraine, Europe and the USA, including economic pressure and diplomatic efforts for further isolating Russia, to achieve constructive results.
In conclusion, Ohryzko stressed the importance of Western unity, greater military and economic aid to Ukraine, and Europe’s gradual move towards independent security. He expressed confidence that Ukraine, through well-coordinated actions with its partners, will be able to meet today’s challenges.
