This article discusses Donald Trump's role in the potential peace process between Ukraine and Russia. Experts note that current discussions are reminiscent of earlier negotiations in spring, which featured the Kellogg plan and the Istanbul memorandum. Now, a new plan is emerging, positioning Trump more as a mediator who seems indifferent to the content of the final document. The key negotiating parties remain Ukraine and Russia.
According to assessments, Europe gains a delayed threat from potential Russian aggression against Baltic and Northern European countries. Experts argue that Trump plays a largely statistical role and is not personally invested in the outcome. However, they emphasize the need to shift Trump from passive observer to an active participant supporting Ukraine and Europe, since Russia largely ignores him.
American domestic factors are also highlighted, such as public opinion, the influence of the defense sector, and the upcoming US midterm elections. It is noted that US arms delivered to Ukraine are typically not free aid but sales, benefiting American companies. Trump is seen as motivated by business interests.
External dimensions include the EU’s tough stance on Russia’s return to the G8 and China’s lack of interest in ending the war or in peace negotiations. The US demonstrates readiness for compromise within the format proposed by Moscow, and further contacts or a potential visit by President Zelensky to the US are considered possible.
Overall, experts believe there is a chance to turn Trump into an active participant in the process, but much will depend on future diplomatic efforts and the evolving international landscape.
