Vitaliy Portnikov analyzes the recent developments in US-Russia-Ukraine relations in the context of Donald Trump's so-called 'peace plan' for ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Russian authorities have officially refused to make concessions until their goals in the so-called 'special military operation' are achieved, which effectively halts the plan at the diplomatic level.
It is highlighted that no agreements were reached during the Trump-Putin summit in Anchorage, and subsequent Russian statements are regarded as typical disinformation. US attempts to convince Moscow to reconsider its position via special envoy Steve Witkoff have so far been unsuccessful.
The leak of details from phone conversations between US and Russian officials sparked a scandal in diplomatic and political circles. The public presentation of the Russian peace plan in the media was an attempt to influence US society and the Trump administration, but did not lead to the lifting of sanctions against Russian oil companies.
Ukraine and its European partners continue to insist on adjusting the plan and refusing to agree to Russian conditions. Meanwhile, Russia applies information pressure and blackmail to influence Trump’s circle and American policy.
The main conclusion is that there are no real preconditions for ending the war; ramping up Russia’s economic and demographic losses remains the only way to peace in the foreseeable future.
Perspectives on changing global approaches to the Ukraine war, the role of the US and Europe, and the prospect of sanctions against not only Russia but also its partners are also addressed.
Ultimately, further developments depend on the effectiveness of sanctions, the resources of both sides, and shifts in the political landscape in the US and globally. Ukraine should focus on preserving statehood in a protracted war and amid international pressures.
