On November 27, Valeriy Plachuk, head of the Centre for Public Analytics 'Vezha', and military expert Ivan Stupak discussed the complex situation of peace negotiations involving Ukraine, the US, Europe, and Russia.
According to Stupak, the recently intensified negotiations have reached a deadlock, largely due to Russia’s reluctance to agree to terms proposed by other parties. The expert stressed that without Russia’s involvement, moving toward a peace agreement is impossible.
The US and Europe play a key role in shaping the negotiation agenda and supporting Ukraine, but current pressure on Russia appears insufficient. Ukraine and its European partners insist on mandatory participation in all discussions and reject concessions unacceptable for Kyiv.
Stupak pointed out that discussions around security guarantees and peace initiatives are happening in parallel, yet European countries are not prepared to engage militarily on Ukraine’s side. Support is expected to be primarily financial and technical, with Ukraine’s own defense capacity remaining the main guarantee.
The speakers agreed that the likelihood of achieving a comprehensive peace agreement with Russia before the end of 2025 is low. Negotiations may resume after the New Year holidays, but stances remain tough and compromises unlikely.
Experts conclude that while Ukraine will retain backing from the US and the EU, substantial Western military aid is improbable, with economic and financial support becoming crucial. Ukraine’s importance to international partners beyond the context of war was emphasized as a strategic priority.
