After a phone conversation with Donald Trump, official China reaffirmed its support for peace initiatives in Ukraine. Notably, China still calls the situation a “conflict,” carefully avoiding the term “war,” while referencing the issue of Taiwan in its foreign policy statements.
Expert Artem Kharitonov points out that China uses the Taiwan issue as leverage in negotiations with the US and the West, aiming for political gains, but faces resistance, particularly from Japan, which recently announced its readiness to defend Taiwan. This shift is seen as beneficial to the overall security climate in the region.
Regarding a possible agreement to freeze the war in Ukraine, Kharitonov explains that China could accept such a deal if it brings certain benefits. For Russia, however, these terms are not as advantageous. Before the full-scale war began, Putin and Xi signed strategic agreements which, among other things, were aimed at curbing NATO’s expansion.
Even if agreements are reached, full lifting of sanctions from Russia is unlikely due to the stance of European countries. Russia would retain control over occupied territories, and China could benefit with resources and as a buffer with Europe. It is also about China's access to logistics, rare earth metals, and regional influence.
The analyst emphasizes that any practical agreement requires Russia's consent, while China is focused on maximizing its benefits in a freeze scenario, aiming to minimize its losses under Western restrictions. Ukrainian society should understand that justice may be postponed and that the global order is currently facing serious challenges.
In conclusion, China pragmatically accepts the possibility of freezing the war. Ongoing US, Chinese, Russian and Ukrainian negotiations will determine further developments.
