Immediately after the first reports about the so-called 'Mindich tapes', Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban declared that Hungary would no longer support Ukraine's funding and would block financial aid. This casts doubt on Ukraine's ability to obtain EU financial assistance.
On a broader scale, three main factors are shaping the negotiation process on the war in Ukraine. The first is the position of former US President Donald Trump, who sees Ukraine's withdrawal from Donbas as a key condition for starting peace talks. On the other side, Russian President Vladimir Putin currently shows no interest in negotiations, aiming to blame Ukraine and the West for the impasse.
The third factor involves security guarantees for the EU, as European countries insist that Ukraine must remain in Donbas until such guarantees are provided. Nevertheless, Trump is reluctant to give such guarantees, despite some recent statements suggesting possible discussions.
European countries have varying perspectives: core countries (Berlin, Paris, London) and others differ in their readiness to support Ukraine financially. One country — Hungary — is sufficient to block support, meaning a decision may be postponed until early 2026, leaving Ukraine in fiscal uncertainty.
Searches involving high officials, including Yermak, may send a positive signal to Europeans about Ukraine's anti-corruption efforts. This is crucial due to long-standing concerns regarding corruption and its impact on public opinion in the EU toward funding Ukraine.
Economic challenges persist, including attrition warfare, significant problems in the Russian economy, and Ukraine's continued dependence on external funding, which may cover 50–80% of the national budget.
Trump's peace plan envisions an investment fund engaging Russia, the US, and Ukraine, with no mention of a reparations loan—an issue affecting funding expectations. The source of leaks about the negotiations remains unknown, complicating the outlook. Multiple theories exist, suggesting involvement from Russia to China.
In summary, new funding and credit for Ukraine depend on future US and EU political positions as well as upcoming political developments.
