On December 1, the Center for Public Analytics “Vezha” hosted a discussion with military expert Ivan Stopak. The main topic was the changing balance of drone warfare between Ukraine and Russia.
The talk examined foreign media reports about Russia’s growing tactical drone advantage and Ukrainian drone/logistics losses surpassing those of infantry. The expert highlighted that Chinese firms are aiding Russia with drone component supplies but stressed that Ukraine’s core problem is a shortage of trained drone operators and resources, not just drones.
Ivan Stopak refuted claims of a 1 to 10 drone ratio in favor of Russia and explained that many drones may remain out of operation due to technical failures or lack of operators. He also noted that some information may be Russian disinformation designed to exaggerate their power.
Ukraine is actively training new drone operators and expanding UAV units within its Armed Forces. Innovative engineering solutions—like barbed wire installations and custom barricades—are being employed, and recruitment continues with 15,000 new drone operator positions opened.
The situation at the front, especially near Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, remains difficult. The city is still held by Ukrainian forces despite severe supply issues, while Russia concentrates substantial troops in the region. The loss of specific towns, although problematic, is not strategically critical on its own but complicates overall defense.
Special attention was given to the impact of these developments on peace talks, with territorial demarcation as the central issue. The sides have dropped their initial maximalist demands, but no consensus on the demarcation line has been reached. US and Russian stances strongly influence the negotiation process, with the possibility of freezing the front line discussed.
The discussants emphasize that Ukraine has not lost the war, despite challenges. The military and diplomatic situation remains dynamic, with international support and the ability to make strategic decisions playing key roles in the outcome.
