Vitaly Portnikov discusses the prospects of negotiations between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US Special Representative Steve Withoff. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized that Russia aims to achieve its "special military operation" goals through diplomacy. According to Portnikov, Putin's main objective is the elimination of Ukrainian statehood, with negotiations serving as a means to this end.
The analyst outlines possible developments. If Ukraine refuses to comply with Kremlin ultimatums, this may give the US grounds to reduce or withdraw support for Kyiv. Alternatively, if the Ukrainian government makes concessions, this could lead to domestic instability. Portnikov notes that even an agreement to withdraw troops from certain territories doesn’t guarantee an end to the war, as new demands from the Kremlin may arise.
He also highlights the risks for Ukrainian society and the military, warning that compromises could spark civil conflict. Russia, meanwhile, maintains claims to parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, which are enshrined in the Russian constitution.
Portnikov questions the prospects for security guarantees for Ukraine, given the current doubts within NATO countries about US commitment. He underscores that the root cause of the war is Ukraine’s very existence as a state, and that negotiations are merely a tool for the Kremlin to pursue its objectives by diplomatic means.
Finally, Portnikov draws attention to the position of Donald Trump and his circle, which may overlook Putin’s real intentions. He concludes that ending the war depends not only on agreements between leaders, but also on a thorough understanding of both sides’ strategic goals.
