The European Union's deep economic dependency on China significantly restricts its ability to pressure Beijing over China's support for Russia in the ongoing war in Ukraine. This concern was highlighted by EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas in November, who noted that China could retaliate against EU countries for their policies towards Ukraine. In October, the EU imposed restrictive measures on several Chinese companies to curb Beijing's assistance to Russia in circumventing sanctions, but these actions have yet to meaningfully affect the course of the war.
Experts emphasize the mutual nature of the dependency: China needs European investment, while the EU relies on Chinese goods and production capacity. Trade between the EU and China exceeds €600 billion—far surpassing pre-war EU-Russia trade volumes. As a result, Europe is unable to quickly alter its policy towards China, even amid growing political necessity.
Security is now the central issue in EU-China talks. China offers risk reduction in exchange for diminishing American influence in Europe. Meanwhile, the US remains keen to protect its market position in Europe and uses the Ukraine war to maintain leverage and coordinate efforts with allies.
Amid these circumstances, complex peace negotiations continue. Russian President Vladimir Putin has rejected current US peace initiatives, keeping diplomatic channels open but showing little sign of compromise. The American delegation has briefed Ukraine after direct talks with Putin, but experts indicate that further compromise is being sought through continued discussions at the working group level.
The situation is complicated by Ukraine’s financial difficulties, delays and disagreements in Western military aid, and mounting economic pressure on Russia—openly acknowledged for the first time by President Putin. Overall, the mutual dependencies of global players limit the prospects for quick political solutions on sanctions, peace, and European security.
