In a recent analysis, experts examined the dynamics of talks between Russia and Ukraine mediated by the United States. The focus was on China's significant influence over the negotiation process. According to the discussion, Beijing currently acts as Moscow’s key ally, and no major Russian decisions regarding the conflict happen without Chinese approval.
China exerts substantial influence on Russia’s military-industrial complex, providing technological support and integrating its companies into Russian defense programs. Notably, it was recently revealed that a Chinese co-owner is involved in a major Russian FPV drone manufacturer.
Regarding negotiations, the experts described the current process as more of a dialogue between the US and China, with neither Russia nor Ukraine holding decisive influence. Strategic decisions are essentially made based on understandings between these global powers.
The US administration, including Donald Trump, does not rule out the option of freezing the conflict along the current frontline, echoing the Chinese “twelve-point peace plan” presented in 2023.
Ukraine is aligned with US policy due to its heavy reliance on Western military aid. Analysts warn that freezing the conflict may negatively affect Ukrainian sovereignty, raising the risk of further territorial claims by Russia.
Separately, the positions of the European Union and NATO show skepticism about the effectiveness of American efforts. NATO is preparing alternative scenarios, including increased military aid, economic support for Kyiv, and intensified sanctions against Russia should talks fail.
Overall, the experts stressed the need for unity among Ukraine’s partners and enhanced resources, as these factors will determine the outcome of negotiations and Ukraine’s broader security.
