In a new interview, journalist, publicist, and political commentator Vitaliy Portnikov discusses key geopolitical processes surrounding Russia’s war against Ukraine. The conversation starts with reports that EU leaders warned about possible US withdrawal from supporting Kyiv. According to Portnikov, European leaders are aware of the risks and not proposing concessions to Ukraine, but are wary of complicating relations with the US, especially under Trump’s team.
Putin and the Russian leadership, Portnikov says, do not respond diplomatically, but resort to threats, particularly regarding the freezing or confiscation of Russian assets. Russia’s reaction demonstrates that such sanctions touch sensitive areas. Simultaneously, Putin dismisses compromises and views negotiations as weakness, continuously expanding territorial demands on Ukraine.
Great attention is paid to the US-Russia talks, especially the involvement of Jared Kushner. Portnikov believes that while there are far-right forces in the US, they do not define the entire Republican Party's stance, meaning Trump’s open support for Russia could face significant public and political resistance.
The discussion delves into Russian political culture—its excessive ambitions, the narrative of “Novorossiya,” manipulation regarding Donbas capitulation, and Russia’s attempts to destabilize Ukrainian society, particularly by pushing pro-Russian narratives in eastern regions.
Portnikov notes Russia’s interest in the demographic and economic exhaustion of Ukraine and its vision of Ukraine as a military base rather than a potential area for development. He also mentions China’s pragmatic role as a Russian ally, not wanting Russia too strong in the region.
He analyzes the isolationist trend in US politics linked to Donald Trump, how it affects America's global leadership, and its readiness to help Ukraine. Portnikov is confident that Trump's presidency would bring crisis to the US, saying history punishes not just leaders, but voters who make such power possible.
The final part addresses the chances of the war’s expansion and whether the next Munich Security Conference could trigger escalation. Portnikov predicts new challenges for Europe and expects Russia to scale up the conflict to shake EU support for Ukraine through hybrid threats and backing far-right movements in major European countries.
