On December 5, the Center for Civic Analytics “Vezha” hosted a discussion featuring political analysts and volunteers. The main topic was the ongoing negotiations on halting or freezing the war in Ukraine, as well as the external influence of the US, Europe, and China, and the financial situations in both Ukraine and Russia.
Participants—political consultant Oleksandr Antonyuk, political scientists Andriy Horodnytskyi and Vadym Denysenko—analyzed the course of the negotiation process. It was emphasized that the US and Russia are negotiating key issues except for territorial matters, only later briefing Ukraine on their agreements. At some point, Ukraine may face an ultimatum regarding territorial compromises.
Vadym Denysenko highlighted changes in the US negotiation strategy and predicted increasing pressure on Ukraine by spring, when a financial crisis could intensify due to a possible lack of foreign aid. Experts pointed to a breakdown in unity across Europe regarding support for Ukraine, while Russia and the US are also discussing lifting sanctions and other economic concerns.
The role of China was discussed: participants noted that China does not wish for either a Russian victory or defeat, since a weakened Russia oriented toward Beijing is preferable for China’s policies. Experts indicated that China has not directly engaged in negotiations but continues to monitor developments closely.
Financial challenges in Ukraine remain acute, and even though Russia possesses considerable resources, major economic problems may emerge only around 2027. Risks and possible scenarios were discussed, including a protracted conflict and war of attrition.
In conclusion, experts noted that the negotiations are complex and multi-layered, influenced by many international actors, and that neither side appears prepared to end the war in the near future.
