On December 10, the Center for Public Analytics Veza hosted Arthur Kharetonov, President of the Liberal Democratic League of Ukraine. The conversation focused on the likelihood of the so-called "Korean scenario" for Ukraine, as reported by the Washington Post.
Kharetonov highlighted that in 2023 Ukraine enjoyed much stronger diplomatic positions, and the Biden administration was far more supportive than Trump's. Discussions about a Korean scenario had already occurred among Korean analysts, and the idea involves dividing the territory and creating a buffer demilitarized zone.
According to Kharetonov, the situation in Ukraine is more complex than in Korea, and forming a buffer zone would only be acceptable if controlled by an international coalition. If Russia or China were to control it, it would pose significant security threats not only to Ukraine but to the broader region.
The expert also noted that the first reports of a Korean scenario appeared in Russian, not Ukrainian, media, which may indicate an information influence campaign. Russia actively promotes the idea of demilitarization as a territorial compromise, but this is wholly unacceptable to Ukraine.
Special attention was paid to Japan, which holds significant frozen Russian assets and provides Ukraine with crucial diplomatic and financial support. However, Japan's legal specifics and unique internal politics play a role, while pressure from China and information campaigns also influence their decisions.
Western partners, including Japan and the US, remain critically important for Ukraine's security even if there is no direct military support. There is also ongoing discussion about easing restrictions on the export of US chips to China, which could impact strategic balance.
In conclusion, Kharetonov emphasized that war is the product of political decisions. Ukraine's future will depend not only on its own position but also on geopolitical agreements between the US, China, Russia, and others. Ukraine must prepare for multiple scenarios and strengthen its partnerships.
