On December 10, at a discussion in the Veza Analytical Center, economist Oleh Penzen and Valeriy Kochuk assessed modern challenges of financing Ukraine, sanctions on Russian oil, and their impact on Ukraine's economy.
The conversation began with a recap of a phone call between Ukraine’s Prime Minister and the US Treasury Secretary about the creation of a recovery fund for Ukraine and sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil. Penzen explained that current sanctions cover oil production and transportation but exclude Lukoil’s foreign assets, as American giants Chron and Exxon Mobil have submitted bids to acquire them. These assets, including gas stations and refineries in several EU countries, are valued at about $20 billion.
Penzen emphasized that US actions primarily aim to replace Russian assets and markets with US companies, following a similar strategy for liquefied natural gas. He stated that financial motivation, not democracy or international commitments, is the root of these sanction policies.
The discussion also examined US-EU economic relations, highlighting that American-European negotiations go beyond the war, with frozen Russian assets remaining a contentious issue. European states are hesitant to transfer these assets, as they currently generate tax revenues for EU budgets.
Regarding Ukraine's 2026 budget, Penzen highlighted the uncertainty of funding sources, especially for the social sector. He expressed skepticism about promises from European partners, believing that realistic support may come as eurobonds rather than direct aid.
The interview concluded with reflections on Europe’s dilemma: to stop funding and risk destabilization or provide Ukraine with necessary resources. Experts call for realistic expectations, with key funding decisions anticipated after the EU summit on December 18.
