A recent expert interview covered key aspects of the negotiation process between Ukraine and Russia. The expert emphasized that both sides have their own demands and aim to maximize their gains. He noted that the process is not a fair division, but rather, Ukraine risks losing its assets under the guise of negotiations.
Addressing the prospects for reparations from Russia, the expert said this would only be possible after a regime change in Russia. At this stage, even the draft peace agreement confirms Ukraine's sovereignty, though there are proposals to limit some of Ukraine’s decision-making and military alliance involvement. The expert also argued that prolonging the war negatively affects Russia and increases its dependence on China, which Russian authorities understand.
China's geopolitical influence was a separate topic. The expert noted that sanctions or trade restrictions are unlikely to sway China, as the country has prepared for such scenarios for years and holds major economic levers. China holds a strategic position in the global economy, especially through manufacturing and control of rare earth materials.
The possible role of Donald Trump in resolving the conflict was discussed, including his efforts to rebalance the geopolitical landscape involving China and Russia. The discussion also touched on migration’s effect on Europe and internal economic issues.
The expert then reviewed the search for a new head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office. Among the candidates, Shmyhal and Fedorov were highlighted, but the current leadership structure remains preferable for President Zelenskyi. The expert suggested that Zelenskyi is unlikely to change his team formation approach soon.
The interview concluded with thanks to the expert for providing commentary and analysis on Ukraine’s and global political affairs.
