The Washington Post reports that, given the current situation at the front, Ukraine is being offered the so-called 'Korean scenario'—a division of the country similar to South and North Korea. In the fall of 2023, this approach was already proposed to Ukraine, including partial NATO membership. Currently, the plan has changed: it now speaks about territorial exchanges, possible EU accession for Ukraine by 2027, and a limitation of the armed forces to 800,000 personnel.
An expert notes that in 2023, Ukraine enjoyed stronger diplomatic positions, and the US administration under Joe Biden was more supportive of Ukraine than the current or potential future administration of Donald Trump. The 'Korean scenario' was actively discussed at that time, including among Korean analysts.
The 'Korean scenario' usually refers to dividing a country by a demarcation line after war, as on the Korean Peninsula in the 1950s: one side under a democratic government, the other under authoritarian rule. The commentary emphasizes that the Ukrainian situation is not entirely comparable to Korea's: Russian occupation of Ukrainian territories is seen as continued aggression, and the so-called quasi-entities are simply forms of Russian control.
The possible demilitarized zone in Ukraine would become a separate negotiation issue concerning who would control it—an international coalition or Russia. A special aspect of South Korea's approach is that it does not renounce its northern territories and even has a Ministry of Unification. In Ukraine, the political context is different—Russia is not the same as North Korea, and the situation in the region and the long-term perspective may change over time.
The expert advises caution regarding such news: no one knows the full truth as discussions and proposals for division are only at the negotiation stage. Ukrainians are encouraged to remain calm and critically assess information.
