On December 11, the Center for Public Analytics “Vezha” hosted a discussion with expert Illia Neshkhodovskyi about the standoff over frozen Russian assets in Europe and the future of Ukraine’s financing. The conversation covered recent reports of pressure on Belgium from the EU and US, proposals to use these funds as loans for Ukraine, and political maneuvers by Donald Trump.
Recent publications indicate internal discord in the EU about transferring Russian assets to Ukraine. Belgium faces warnings from European partners over reluctance to share these funds and has announced plans to take possible legal action at the EU court. Meanwhile, EU leaders are considering distributing loans to Ukraine backed by Russian assets, but the process is complicated by the positions of other countries such as France, Liechtenstein and Germany.
The US—especially Donald Trump—plays a critical role, pushing ideas of restitution funds to divide Russian assets among Ukraine, the US, and Russia. European countries oppose this, insisting on security guarantees for themselves and Ukraine. A conclusive decision on Ukraine's further funding is expected not earlier than January, while there are significant political differences and threats to EU unity regarding Russian assets.
The discussion also covered how the negotiation process may affect the pace of financial support to Ukraine, the possibility of freezing the war, and the potential return of Russian energy resources to the European market. Russian contracts with India and Turkey, oil imports, and new sanctions were given special attention.
The expert emphasized that the final decision on asset transfer, the security guarantees format and future European support will depend on the dynamics of negotiations among the EU, US and Russia. European leaders are seeking a balance between security guarantees, economic interests and geopolitical priorities amid an intense international situation.
