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Discussing the 'Korean Scenario' for Ukraine: The New US Peace Plan and Its Probability


The article examines the Washington Post's publication about US proposals to resolve the war in Ukraine based on the 'Korean scenario': establishing a demilitarized zone, security guarantees, prospects for EU accession and economic recovery, as well as expert opinions on the realism of such proposals.

The Washington Post published an article about a possible 'Korean scenario' for Ukraine as a way to end the war. According to the publication, the US proposes creating a demilitarized zone along the front line — from Donetsk region to Kherson — similar to the division of Korea. It is also suggested to establish a deeper zone where heavy weaponry would be banned.

This concept was previously promoted in 2023 by US General Stavridis, who suggested that the portion of Ukraine under Ukrainian control could join NATO, but was rejected at the time by Ukraine.

The current US plan envisions a gradual cessation of hostilities, security guarantees for Ukraine (potentially with the involvement of the European Union), and the possibility of Ukraine joining the EU in 2027 after overcoming resistance from countries like Hungary. The question of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is discussed — it may come under US or international management.

The plan also considers providing Ukraine with financial assistance for reconstruction: the Trump administration proposes using $100 billion in frozen Russian assets and attracting $400 billion more through a special development fund. There is also a desire to offer similar investments to Russia in order to influence its domestic processes.

Experts point out that many parts of the plan appear unrealistic: security guarantees similar to NATO's Article 5 or guaranteed EU membership are hard to achieve both legally and politically. There are still disputes over the drawing of future borders, and the fate of populations in demilitarized territories remains unresolved.

The discussion reflects that such proposals are currently attempts to find a compromise both sides could sign. However, many Ukrainian experts are skeptical about the long-term effectiveness of the 'Korean scenario' and emphasize the complexity of its implementation, considering Ukraine’s security and interests.