On December 12, the Center for Civic Analytics “Vezha” hosted its weekly summary program. Project head Valerii Klachok and experts Ihor Chalenko, Petro Oleshchuk, and military analyst Ivan Stupak discussed key topics of the week. The main focus was the ongoing debate in Ukraine about a possible referendum on the status of disputed territories to achieve a peace deal.
The experts highlighted the complexity of such an initiative: parts of Donetsk region remain under control, but prolonged conflict threatens further losses. There were also discussions about the potential for creating a free economic or demilitarized zone, reflected in various political statements and comments by presidential advisers.
Some experts stated that the referendum idea could be used as a negotiating tool with the West or as an attempt to buy time rather than making concessions to Russia or to Donald Trump’s demands. Meanwhile, Ukraine seeks to broaden its ally base in Europe and the US, mobilize diplomatic support, and apply economic and political pressure in response to Russia’s military strategy.
The discussion covered Russia’s demands for legal guarantees in peace talks, as well as the "diplomatic ping-pong" of information manipulation surrounding zones and referendums.
The experts also examined the prospects of elections: security issues, displaced population, legitimacy, and both external and internal pressure were all analyzed within the context of Ukraine’s political aikido. According to the analysts, Kyiv’s current position is to buy time, avoid final decisions, and aim for the strongest possible guarantees from partners.
In conclusion, the participants agreed that there is little chance of promptly signing a peace or even interim agreement. Ukraine is working to make the most of time, balancing the pressures from allies, the situation on the ground, and political conditions.
