On December 17, the Center for Public Analytics "Vezha" hosted a conversation with Artur Kharetonov, president of the Liberal Democratic League of Ukraine, focusing on China's role in the negotiation process between Russia, the US, and Ukraine.
Kharetonov emphasized that China typically avoids open commentary on its real actions, signaling its deep involvement in the process. He stressed that the realities of Ukraine war negotiations depend heavily on Beijing’s position, as Russia does not make decisive moves without China’s approval. The current status quo, favorable to China, is reflected in official Chinese silence.
The discussion also addressed Russian statements regarding the possible deployment of European peacekeeping troops in Ukraine after a possible agreement to freeze the war. According to Kharetonov, Russia's references to "foreign contingents" often also include a hypothetical Chinese presence, with China maintaining strategic interests in weakening NATO and controlling parts of occupied Ukraine.
The expert commented on the prospects for a possible UN peacekeeping mission, highlighting challenges and risks of manipulation by Russia and China. Kharetonov argued that a peacekeeping mission of NATO or Western democracies would be much more effective, noting that decisive influence rests with Beijing rather than Moscow.
Particular attention was paid to US sanctions policy towards Russia's energy sector, which could also affect China. Kharetonov stated that future moves will hinge on agreements between Washington and Beijing, with China playing a crucial role in both ending the war and shaping future international actions.
In summary, Kharetonov pointed out that the future of peace talks and international military presence in Ukraine will largely depend on China’s stance, and that real agreements are made behind closed doors, shaped by backchannel diplomacy.
