Vladimir Putin has rejected a Christmas ceasefire, but claims he is willing to halt strikes on Ukraine while presidential elections are held. Political analyst Vitaliy Portnikov emphasizes that Putin's statements are not aimed at changing Ukraine's government, but rather serve as a political tactic.
Portnikov notes that holding elections during wartime would actually favor the incumbent president. With martial law and information constraints, alternative candidates stand little chance, making Zelensky's reelection likely. Russia may deem such elections illegitimate, and the US response will depend on the current administration's stance.
The impact of Ukraine's elections on international negotiations is also discussed. Putin and Trump have different goals for Ukraine's future: Russia seeks to undermine national independence, while the US seeks Ukraine's survival. Finding a candidate acceptable to both is nearly impossible.
Regarding the peace process, Portnikov stresses that Russia's uncompromising position on territorial issues, particularly Donbas, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, is the main obstacle. The war may continue as long as Russia maintains economic resources. European support can sustain Ukraine for at least two more years, while attacks on Russia's energy sector and intensified sanctions could accelerate Russia's economic exhaustion.
Although election discussions are ongoing among Ukrainian authorities, the practical conditions for holding them in the near future are absent. According to Portnikov, Ukraine's main challenge for 2026 is survival and securing a pathway to peace, as security guarantees are ineffective without NATO membership.
The interview also covers corruption, the influence of pro-Russian agents, and the importance of professional leadership. Portnikov insists that citizens must choose competent, honest leaders and warns that the cost of political mistakes for Ukraine is critically high.
