On December 24, the Veza Public Analytics Center interviewed financier and economist Oleh Penzen about the economic crisis in Russia, the idea of a free economic zone, and peace initiatives.
The discussion began with details of the peace plan proposed by Volodymyr Zelensky, particularly the point about a possible free economic zone in Donbas, which could be put to a referendum. Penzen cautioned about the complexities of such an idea, stressing issues of jurisdiction, legislation, and the fate of the local population. He emphasized that, without well-designed mechanisms, such formats could enable the handover of territory to Russian control.
Penzen noted that Russia currently faces severe economic problems due to war spending and low oil prices. The main source of budget revenues, the oil and gas sector, is under pressure from sanctions and rising logistics costs. The lack of external borrowing and increasing fiscal pressure on domestic businesses add to instability.
The conversation also covered the impact of US and EU sanctions, the role of international oil companies, and the potential for social unrest in Russia amid budget cuts. Penzen observed that international partners’ comments are often directed at their domestic audiences for political reasons, but acknowledged that Western expert assessments match the real situation in Russia.
The discussion concluded that Russia’s economic challenges are significant, while compromise ideas for Donbas are viable only if supported by clear legal guarantees and transparent mechanisms. Final decisions on a free economic zone remain open.
