In recent expert discussions, a Ukrainian military analyst commented on Kyrylo Budanov’s statement, who heads Ukraine's military intelligence. Budanov recently suggested a "window of opportunity" in February regarding the end of the war. The analyst notes that Budanov has repeatedly predicted when the war might end, but none of these predictions have come true so far. The expert advises caution regarding any forecasts for February.
The discussion also touched on Russia’s economic situation. The analyst believes that if there is no change in Kremlin policy, the Russian economy could face a serious crisis by 2026. Meanwhile, Western countries do not support the idea of Russian disintegration, viewing regime change toward democracy as a more realistic but still challenging scenario.
Regarding peace negotiations, the analyst emphasizes that new rounds of talks are often initiated by Russia, and currently, a complex search for a compromise is underway between Ukraine, Europe, the United States, and Russia. Among the scenarios for Kyiv is a possible ceasefire without a final peace agreement, which would allow presidential elections and minimize political risks.
There is also mention of the possibility of a consultative poll, rather than a territorial referendum, on the creation of a free economic zone—a legal measure to justify difficult decisions without political losses for the authorities.
Experts note that neither the US nor Europe is currently ready for large-scale support of Ukraine, and domestic resources—especially human ones—are running low. A freeze of hostilities may therefore be the optimal solution in current conditions, though the risk of renewed Russian aggression remains in the future.
The importance of sustaining the Ukrainian army’s capability and obtaining security guarantees is highlighted. The US advocates for giving Ukraine sufficient defense capacity to deter potential future threats.
