In the first broadcast of 2026, expert Vitaliy Portnikov presented an in-depth analysis of the political processes that will define the year for Ukraine. Special attention is paid to the situation at the front, changes in US and European foreign policy, the role of Donald Trump, and forecasts regarding a possible de-escalation or intensification of military action.
The discussion covers Russia's information operation concerning the alleged attack on Putin's residence and the reactions of world leaders, including Trump, who cautiously recognized the unreliability of Russian accusations. It is emphasized that the US has officially denied this attack, highlighting the importance of information verification and the West's diplomatic response.
Portnikov notes that Russia might announce new territorial claims on Sumy and Chernihiv regions but has limited military capabilities. He believes the front has entered a phase of strategic equilibrium—likely a de-escalation of hostilities—which creates conditions for prolonged negotiations but not for a comprehensive peace.
The analyst draws attention to the uncertainty of the US administration’s position, the impact of a possible Trump presidency, relationships with Putin and European leaders. He discusses the limited effectiveness of Russia’s energy terror, domestic political turbulence in Ukraine, potential strengthening of mobilization, and the prospects of interacting with Europe without US support.
Portnikov assumes that 2026 will be a year of relative stabilization without major escalation, with the potential for a gradual easing of the war, though not excluding political surprises. He also compares the current situation with historical and global precedents, emphasizing the importance of public readiness for challenges.
