On January 3, the Veza Center for Public Analytics hosted a discussion featuring energy expert Volodymyr Omelchenko, focused on the situation in Venezuela. The main topic was the US military operation resulting in Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro being detained and, according to unconfirmed reports, removed from the country. Both the US and Donald Trump had called for Maduro's resignation, while Russia reacted by calling the operation an act of aggression. The global community is closely watching these developments, especially due to Venezuela's significance in the global oil market.
Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves, but extracting and transporting its heavy oil is technologically challenging, and the country's current output is just around 1 million barrels per day. The major buyers are China and the US. Years of sanctions, technological stagnation, and nationalization of the oil sector under Chavez and Maduro have left the Venezuelan economy in crisis. Russia and China have exploited the country’s weakness to increase their influence, including through organized crime and narcotics trafficking.
According to Omelchenko, the events in Venezuela will have a limited immediate effect on the global oil market due to low production. Strategically, however, a stabilized Venezuela could eventually raise output to 7–8 million barrels per day—potentially replacing some Russian oil. Nevertheless, such changes would require several years to materialize.
The expert also suggested that a regime change in Venezuela could weaken Russia's position in the energy sector and in the Caribbean. Meanwhile, the US is expected to maintain a strategy centered on countering China, where Russia remains a key player. In the short term, the developments in Venezuela are not likely to have a major impact on the war in Ukraine, but over time, continued sanctions and falling oil prices could weaken Russia’s economy and possibly speed up conflict resolution.
The discussion included the issue of stopping the transit of Russian oil through Ukraine to Europe. Omelchenko noted this could increase pressure on Russia’s economy and weaken pro-Russian forces in the EU. However, implementing energy sanctions remains a challenge due to the economic interests of certain political groups in Ukraine and the EU.
In conclusion, experts highlighted that recent events in Venezuela could have major long-term geopolitical implications. The situation continues to develop, and it is too early to assess the full impact of these changes on the global and Ukrainian political landscape.
