Political scientist Ihor Reiterovych shared his analysis of the consequences of the US military operation in Venezuela for Ukraine and Russia. The operation, which resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, drew significant international attention. Maduro was brought to the US, where he faces official charges of terrorism, drug trafficking, and endangering US national security.
Reiterovych focuses not on international legal aspects, but on the impact of this event on the media landscape around the war in Ukraine and relations with Russia. He believes that although Ukraine may briefly lose media prominence, international coverage will soon return, especially in the context of upcoming US elections. The main loss for Russia, according to the expert, is reputational—Maduro was considered a Moscow ally, and Russia’s inability to protect him demonstrates its weak support for partners.
The Venezuelan oil factor is of particular importance for Ukraine. Venezuela possesses some of the world's largest oil reserves, and control over these resources significantly influences global prices. Russia has used a "shadow fleet" to export its oil by blending it with Venezuelan oil, circumventing sanctions. US intervention and possible regime change in Venezuela could severely limit Russia’s activities in this area, impacting its economic potential and future budget plans.
Reiterovych also notes the likelihood that US success in Venezuela may push Washington to take a tougher stance against Russia. Such changes could also affect the course of the war in Ukraine if American leadership sees favorable public and political responses to such actions.
Overall, the political scientist believes that the Venezuelan operation creates new risks for Putin’s regime and changes the balance of power in the global oil market, which could benefit Ukraine in the long run.
