Heavily armed US troops are escorting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro through the streets of New York. US President Donald Trump is threatening Venezuela's acting head of state, Delcy Rodríguez, stressing that if she refuses to cooperate with Washington, she will face a fate worse than Maduro's. Similar warnings are echoed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, one of the main initiators of the special operation in Venezuela.
Meanwhile, the new Venezuelan president shows no willingness to work with the United States. Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López, on behalf of the military, has protested what he calls the abduction of President Maduro. There are no mass protests in the streets in support of the opposition, which recently won the 2024 presidential elections.
The regime established by Hugo Chávez maintains power and control over Venezuela's oil industry. Thus, despite the special operation, no significant policy changes have occurred yet.
The author believes the geopolitical results of the operation are still unclear. The operation may only serve as a propaganda success for Trump, with no real change in Venezuela's leadership. Serious changes would require a broader military campaign, contradicting Trump's own political philosophy.
Instead, the US president continues a policy of isolationism, minimizing involvement in foreign conflicts. In the case of Venezuela, the risks of a full-scale war and significant casualties could cause conflict between Trump and his electorate.
Venezuelan leaders, relying on ideological slogans, are not ready to cooperate with the US, as it would mean losing domestic support and their allies in Moscow and Beijing. Trump faces a choice: either recognize the limits of American influence or risk war with uncertain prospects.
The uncertainty after the operation reflects Trump's dilemma between demonstrative actions and real military conflict, which could have serious consequences for the US in Latin America and globally.