After the recent developments in Venezuela, where US special forces detained Nicolás Maduro and brought him to the United States, leading Russian economic experts have expressed serious concerns. These events are expected to cause a drop in the price of Urals oil, directly affecting Russia's budget.
Russian experts condemned the US actions as violations of international law and voiced concerns over growing global tensions. Meanwhile, the US president, encouraged by the success in Venezuela, issued strong statements threatening other countries—Mexico, Colombia, Cuba and Denmark, with references to Greenland.
Regarding the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with Donald Trump, and both sides indicated 'significant progress' towards ending the war. Russia, however, was not present at these talks. Subsequently, Vladimir Putin withdrew from further negotiations, citing an alleged drone attack on his residence—a claim disbelieved by the American side.
The Russian economy faces significant difficulties: falling oil and gas revenues, an increase in VAT, and widespread small and medium business closures. According to official data from Rosstat, nearly every sector of the Russian economy showed negative growth in 2025. Officials, including Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, claim that this downturn was 'planned.'
Oligarch Vladimir Potanin also notes that Russian business is going through a period of survival. Social tensions are rising due to wage arrears, layoffs and staff shortages. Against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict with Ukraine, Russia's economy risks entering a perfect storm.
Despite these challenges, the Russian public largely continues to support the war, but President Putin will soon face a decision: further mobilization—which could devastate the economy—or freezing the conflict. Ukraine continues to receive military support and is preparing for future challenges.
