On January 7, the Veza Center for Public Analytics hosted a new expert discussion on the peace negotiations taking place in Paris. Political scientist Dr. Petro Voloshchuk analyzed the implications of US involvement for the agreements and future security guarantees for Ukraine.
According to him, the American delegation's participation changed the initial plans of the European participants, who did not intend to work on January 7, but are now actively discussing security guarantees. Ukraine, the EU, and the US are seeking consensus, but Russia's ambiguous stance and silence leave uncertainty about the true impact of any agreements. Real outcomes depend on Moscow's decisions.
Dr. Voloshchuk noted that the President of Ukraine had left the meeting for Cyprus to talk with the upcoming EU Chair. While some agreements with European countries have been reached, the US did not sign the final communique. The main challenge is the format of US involvement; Europeans are unwilling to take decisive steps on security guarantees without some “umbrella” or clear engagement from the US.
The Ukrainian delegation is now headed by Kyrylo Budanov, who has effective communication with American counterparts. The delegation is structured for maximized dialogue with the US, as talks with the Trump administration are highly personal in nature.
The talks are defined by two competing approaches: the Russian focus on territorial issues and the Ukrainian emphasis on security guarantees. Successful agreements on guarantees could clarify Russia’s real intentions regarding the war, playing a key role in any settlement.
Additionally, the episode with a Russian tanker, central to a diplomatic standoff between Russia and the US, as well as US operations in Venezuela and Iran, may have psychological effects on Putin and create extra pressure on his decisions, according to Voloshchuk.
In conclusion, although final agreements remain elusive, US actions and Trump’s rhetoric continue to affect Ukraine’s position, and security guarantees stay at the core of international negotiations. There is cautious optimism and hope for constructive progress.
